Trump’s Return to Test EU Like Never Before, Experts Warn

Donald Trump’s anticipated second term as U.S. president poses the “biggest test” for the European Union in its 70-year history, experts have cautioned, warning of increased challenges to the bloc’s global relevance and cohesion.

Dimitris Tsarouhas, an international relations expert at Virginia Tech University, noted that the EU faces a critical juncture, grappling with both external and internal pressures. “Europe’s failure to unify defense procurement policies and decision-making has left it disadvantaged in a world dominated by major powers like the U.S. and China,” he said.

Tsarouhas also highlighted the potential fallout of Trump’s transactional approach to NATO, signaling a weaker bond between the U.S. and Europe. While European nations have increased defense budgets in response to Russian aggression, the U.S. push for heightened contributions to NATO could reshape the transatlantic alliance, further complicating Europe’s position in an increasingly illiberal international system.

The EU's internal struggles, including the rise of far-right and anti-establishment movements, compound the challenges. “Trump’s return is the biggest test of the EU’s capacity to act we’ve ever seen,” Tsarouhas emphasized.

George Tzogopoulos, a senior expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, sees Trump’s policies as a catalyst for European defense autonomy. However, he warned against allowing U.S. policy to dictate Europe’s stance on geopolitical issues, particularly regarding China. “A stronger EU would enable Europe to express disagreements with the U.S. while safeguarding its interests,” he stated.

Tzogopoulos also urged the EU to enhance industrial support and implement a European version of the Inflation Reduction Act to bolster its economic resilience.

As Trump’s presidency looms, Europe faces a pivotal opportunity to redefine its strategic autonomy while navigating complex transatlantic dynamics.